Presidential Speech PredictorPredict what Trump will say next
Get AI fair-value estimates for Trump mention markets before he speaks. Find your edge in Trump speech markets and get ahead of other traders.
Built for Kalshi and Polymarket mention market traders — the one and only tool meant to give you an edge on trading Trump mention markets.
What it does
The ultimate all-in-one Trump speech analysis tool. Includes six key features: Strike Generator, Probability Checker, Strike Grouper, Hit Rate Calculator, Market Edge Finder, and Live Strike Grouper.
Find Your Edge
Paste a Trump mention market from Kalshi or Polymarket and get a full AI strike analysis showing where the market is mispriced against the tool's fair value estimates.
Track Hit Rates
Upload past Trump speech transcripts to generate a hit rate matrix showing how often each strike appears — perfect for spotting historical patterns.
Live Speech Analysis
Group strikes by talking point before a speech, then watch groups light up in real time as Trump approaches each topic live.
See a sample Trump speech analysis
Similar to what you see after pasting a market into the "Market Edge Finder" feature — an AI Trump speech analysis with a fair-value estimate along with evidence and context for or against him mentioning a given strike.
Sample market — Trump rally mention markets
4 strikes · 2 Strong Value · 1 Fair · 1 Overpriced
“China” Strong Value 🟢
Central to his current trade-and-tariffs messaging; hit in 9 of his last 10 rally speeches. Market is underpricing a near-lock.
MARKET
58%
FAIR VALUE
79%
EDGE
+21%
🧾 CONTEXT — HOW IT CAME UP
Remarks - Economic Club of New York - 9/3/26
Opened on the trade deficit and made China the centerpiece.
“We're putting tariffs on China like they've never seen before.”
Rally - Erie, PA - 8/26/26
Hammered China on manufacturing and jobs for several minutes.
“China has been ripping us off for decades — that ends now.”
Remarks - Detroit Economic Forum - 8/14/26
Returned to China repeatedly while pitching the tariff plan.
“Nobody has been tougher on China than me, nobody.”
“Tariffs” Strong Value 🟢
A signature economic theme he's leaned into hard lately — the tool reads this as far likelier than the market implies.
MARKET
64%
FAIR VALUE
77%
EDGE
+13%
🧾 CONTEXT — HOW IT CAME UP
Remarks - Economic Club of New York - 9/3/26
Framed tariffs as his signature economic weapon.
“Tariffs are going to make our country rich again.”
Rally - Erie, PA - 8/26/26
Tied tariffs directly to bringing manufacturing jobs back.
“We're bringing in billions and billions with tariffs.”
Rally - Grand Rapids, MI - 8/9/26
Repeated the tariff line to big applause.
“Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”
“Border” Fair Value ⚪
Priced about right — a reliable staple, but no fresh catalyst this week to push it above where the market already has it.
MARKET
71%
FAIR VALUE
74%
EDGE
+3%
🧾 CONTEXT — HOW IT CAME UP
Rally - Erie, PA - 8/26/26
A steady talking point, mentioned without any new emphasis.
“We're going to secure the border, and we're doing it fast.”
Remarks - Phoenix, AZ - 8/12/26
Standard mid-speech border reference.
“The border is stronger and safer than it's ever been.”
Rally - Grand Rapids, MI - 8/9/26
Brief mention before pivoting back to the economy.
“Nobody's coming across that border anymore, nobody.”
“Witch hunt” Overpriced 🔴
Market overweights it. He's leaned off legal-grievance language in recent economy-focused speeches — the tool fades the crowd here.
MARKET
52%
FAIR VALUE
33%
EDGE
-19%
🧾 CONTEXT — HOW IT CAME UP
Rally - Dayton, OH - 7/21/26
Used in an extended legal-grievance riff — but note the older date.
“It's a total witch hunt, the greatest in history.”
Remarks - Bedminster, NJ - 7/8/26
Tied it to the ongoing court cases.
“This witch hunt has to end — it's a disgrace to our country.”
Rally - Waco, TX - 6/28/26
Grievance-heavy speech, well before the recent economic pivot.
“They've been on a witch hunt against me since day one.”
Every fair value blends the Empirical Anchor (how often he's actually said it) with live context from his recent Truth Social activity, and is scaled by the Yap Factor — how long and rambling the speech is expected to run. Figures, quotes, and context shown are an illustrative example, not live market data.
Free vs Premium
Try it free, no credit card. Upgrade only when you want the full toolkit.
WHAT YOU GET
FREE
PREMIUM
🔮 Strike GeneratorGenerate likely strikes for a speech
✓3 / day
✓Unlimited
🎯 Probability CheckerFair-value odds on any strike
✓3 / day
✓Unlimited
🗂️ Strike GrouperGroup strikes by talking point
✓3 / day
✓Unlimited
📈 Market Edge FinderSpot mispriced markets vs. fair value
—
✓
📊 Hit Rate CalculatorHistorical base rates from transcripts
—
✓
🔴 Live Strike GrouperTrack strikes live as he speaks
—
✓
💾 Save & store transcriptsReuse cleaned transcripts anytime
—
✓
🔗 Resources hubSchedules, transcripts & live feeds
✓
✓
Free daily limits reset every day at midnight UTC. Cancel Premium anytime.
Built for mention market traders. For those trading on Kalshi, Polymarket, and similar platforms around presidential speeches, addresses, and press conferences.
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about the tool.
Is this affiliated with any prediction market platform, the Trump administration, or Truth Social?
No. Presidential Speech Predictor is an independent analytics tool. We aren't affiliated with, endorsed by, or partnered with Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform. We are also not affiliated with, endorsed by, or partnered with the Truth Social API, Truth Social, TMTG, the Trump administration, the White House, or Donald Trump personally. All references to public figures and their speech patterns are for analytical purposes only.
How accurate are the predictions?
The tool uses AI-based analysis of speech patterns, recent Truth Social activity, and market context to identify likely talking points. Predictions are probabilistic, not guaranteed. Use them as one input alongside your own research — not as a replacement for it.
What prediction markets does this work for?
Any market where the outcome depends on the content of a presidential speech. That includes most "mention" markets on Kalshi and Polymarket around scheduled speeches, addresses, and press conferences.
What if the AI is wrong?
Trading on prediction markets involves risk. The AI's output is not investment advice. If a prediction turns out to be wrong, you're responsible for your own trades. Full disclaimer available in Terms of Service.
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