Presidential Speech Predictor
Predict what Trump will say next. Get an AI fair-value estimate for every Trump mention market before he speaks — then watch your strikes light up live, in real time, as he says them. Built for Kalshi and Polymarket mention market traders trading Trump speeches, rallies, and press conferences.
What it does
The all-in-one Trump speech predictor. Everything you need to trade Trump speeches, rallies, and mention markets with an edge.
Find Your Edge
Paste a Trump mention market from Kalshi or Polymarket and get a full AI strike analysis showing where the market is mispriced against the tool's fair value estimates.
Track Hit Rates
Upload past Trump speech transcripts to generate a hit rate matrix showing how often each strike appears — perfect for spotting historical patterns.
Live Speech Analysis
Group strikes by talking point before a speech, then watch groups light up in real time as Trump approaches each topic live.
See a sample analysis
Exactly what you get the moment you paste a market — a fair-value estimate and edge on every strike, before he speaks. Illustrative example:
- “China” — Strong Value. Market 58%, tool fair value 79%, edge +21%. Central to his trade-and-tariffs messaging; hit in 9 of his last 10 rally speeches.
- “Tariffs” — Strong Value. Market 64%, tool fair value 77%, edge +13%. Heavy recent Truth Social activity on trade and a friendly venue.
- “Border” — Fair Value. Market 71%, tool fair value 74%, edge +3%. Priced about right — a staple with no fresh catalyst.
- “Witch hunt” — Overpriced. Market 52%, tool fair value 33%, edge −19%. He's leaned off legal-grievance language in recent economy-focused speeches.
Every fair value blends the Empirical Anchor (how often he's actually said it) with live context from recent Truth Social activity, scaled by the Yap Factor (how long and rambling the speech is expected to run). Figures shown are an illustrative example, not live market data.
Built for mention market traders
For those trading on Kalshi, Polymarket, and similar platforms around presidential speeches, addresses, and press conferences.
Frequently asked questions
Is this affiliated with any prediction market platform, the Trump administration, or Truth Social?
No. Presidential Speech Predictor is an independent analytics tool. We aren't affiliated with, endorsed by, or partnered with Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform, nor with Truth Social, TMTG, the Trump administration, the White House, or Donald Trump personally. All references to public figures and their speech patterns are for analytical purposes only.
How accurate are the predictions?
The tool uses AI-based analysis of speech patterns, recent Truth Social activity, and market context to identify likely talking points. Predictions are probabilistic, not guaranteed. Use them as one input alongside your own research — not as a replacement for it.
What prediction markets does this work for?
Any market where the outcome depends on the content of a presidential speech. That includes most “mention” markets on Kalshi and Polymarket around scheduled speeches, addresses, and press conferences.
What if the AI is wrong?
Trading on prediction markets involves risk. The AI's output is not investment advice. If a prediction turns out to be wrong, you're responsible for your own trades.
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